Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $367,796$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{429,803.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(429,803.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $21,137$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,396.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 179.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,396.1\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,021$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $219,435$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{286,460.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 152.0)}}\) (asimptote \(286,460.2\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,740$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 130.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,765.2\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,686$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,459$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(579 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,413.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 120.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,413.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,057$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(28.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,348.9}{1 + 10^{-0.245 (t - 107.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,348.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,910$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,005$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,305.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(89,305.1\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $650$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(17.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{846.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.5)}}\) (asimptote \(846.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,747$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $82,945$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,936.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 120.4)}}\) (asimptote \(82,936.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $522$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(81.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{490.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(490.5\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,901$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,756$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,845.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 127.0)}}\) (asimptote \(52,845.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $188$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(7.91 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{192.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 113.9)}}\) (asimptote \(192.7\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,198$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $311,855$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{320,493.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.9)}}\) (asimptote \(320,493.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,785$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(221 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,976.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,976.5\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,815$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $110,403$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $884$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(89.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,793$ on 2020-08-27