Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $367,796$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{429,803.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(429,803.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,137$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,396.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 179.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,396.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,021$ on 2020-08-27

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $219,435$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{286,460.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 152.0)}}\) (asimptote \(286,460.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,740$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 130.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,765.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,686$ on 2020-08-27

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,459$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(579 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,413.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 120.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,413.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,057$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(28.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,348.9}{1 + 10^{-0.245 (t - 107.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,348.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,910$ on 2020-08-27

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,005$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,305.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(89,305.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $650$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(17.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{846.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.5)}}\) (asimptote \(846.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,747$ on 2020-08-27

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $82,945$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,936.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 120.4)}}\) (asimptote \(82,936.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $522$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(81.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{490.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(490.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,901$ on 2020-08-27

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,756$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,845.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 127.0)}}\) (asimptote \(52,845.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $188$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(7.91 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{192.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 113.9)}}\) (asimptote \(192.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,198$ on 2020-08-27

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $311,855$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{320,493.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.9)}}\) (asimptote \(320,493.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,785$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(221 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,976.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,976.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,815$ on 2020-08-27

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $110,403$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $884$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(89.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,793$ on 2020-08-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Singapore recovered 93%
Pakistan recovered 92%
Kazakhstan recovered 75%
Uzbekistan recovered 69%
Saudi Arabia recovered 65%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 62%
Afghanistan recovered 62%
Bahrain recovered 44%
Israel recovered 40%
Japan recovered 31%
Vietnam recovered 25%
Indonesia recovered 9%
Bangladesh recovered 8%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,814$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(-6.05 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,494.8}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(84,494.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,715$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(-3.38 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,678.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,678.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $764$ on 2020-08-27

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,572$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(-6.09 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,848.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 113.4)}}\) (asimptote \(52,848.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(11.7 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,406$ on 2020-08-27

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $294,638$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,283.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.1)}}\) (asimptote \(294,283.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,274$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(775 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,368.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 80.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,368.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,803$ on 2020-08-27

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,408$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,571.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 117.0)}}\) (asimptote \(111,571.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,523$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(7.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,920.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 138.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,920.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,632$ on 2020-08-27